Management thought

All color profiles used in a project are saved in the project, so you do not need to manually transfer color profiles from one system to another to open the project on another system. The NTSC color profile corresponds to obsolete television equipment and should not be used. When you choose a profile—for input, output, or simulation—the motion-picture film profiles do not appear unless your footage is Cineon footage or you select Show All Available profiles.

Management thought

In extreme heat, a snake is unable to differentiate its own tail from its prey, and will attack itself, self-cannibalizing until it perishes.

The Ouroboros is a metaphor for the financial alchemy driving the modern Bear Market in Fear. Volatility across asset classes is at multi-generational lows. A dangerous feedback loop now exists between ultra-low interest rates, debt expansion, asset volatility, and financial engineering that allocates risk based on that volatility.

Alchemy is the only way to feed our global hunger for yield, until it kills the very system it is nourishing. Volatility is now an input for risk taking and the source of excess returns in the absence of value.

Like a snake blind to the fact it is devouring its own body, the same factors that appear stabilizing can reverse into chaos. The danger is that the multi-trillion-dollar short volatility trade, in all its forms, will contribute to a violent feedback loop of higher volatility resulting in a hyper-crash.

Thirty-years ago to the day we experienced that moment. In this paper we will argue that rising inflation was the spark that ignited fire, while computer trading served as explosive nitroglycerin that amplified a normal fire into a cataclysmic conflagration.

The multi-trillion-dollar short volatility trade, broadly defined in all its forms, can play a similar role today if inflation forces central banks to raise rates into any financial stress. There is no such thing as control… there are only probabilities.

To download the full article published in Octoberclick here. Opens in a new window. Never forget there is a form of peace and stability reinforced by a foundation of underlying volatility. Truth is being suppressed by the tools of money. Market behavior has now fully adapted to the expectation of pre-emptive central bank action to crisis creating a dangerous self-reflexivity and moral hazard.

As markets now fully price the expectation of central bank control we are now only one voltage switch away from the razors edge of risk.

Do not fool yourself - peace is not the absence of conflict — peace can exist on the very edge of volatility. The next great crash will occur when we collectively realize that the institutions that we trusted to remove risk are actually the source of it. The truth is that global central banks cannot remove extraordinary monetary accommodation without risking a complete collapse of the system, but the longer they wait the more they risk their own credibility, and the worse that inevitable collapse will be.

To understand volatility as an asset class is to value the forward expectation of uncertainty, which is as much a function of human psychology as it is an expression of mathematics.

Since the financial crisis, the pricing of volatility derivatives has undergone wide-scale changes that reflect classic behavioral biases. Not only is volatility an asset class, but in fact, it may end up being the most important asset class for institutional portfolios over the next decade.

Volatility of an Impossible Object: The global financial markets walk on the razors edge of empiricism and what you see is not what you think, and what you think may very well be impossible anyway. The impossible object in art is an illustration that highlights the limitations of human perception and is an appropriate construct for our modern capitalist dystopia.

Modern financial markets are a game of impossible objects. In a world where global central banks manipulate the cost of risk the mechanics of price discovery have disengaged from reality resulting in paradoxical expressions of value that should not exist according to efficient market theory.

Management thought

Fear and safety are now interchangeable in a speculative and high stakes game of perception. The efficient frontier is now contorted to such a degree that traditional empirical views are no longer relevant.

The volatility of an impossible object is your own changing perception of risk.Thoughtexchange software and professional services allow your organization to be inclusive and agile at the same time.

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